This study evaluates career trajectories in the retail and wholesale sectors, focusing on individual attributes and the underlying factors influencing diverse career outcomes. Employing quantitative (sequence analysis and logit estimations) and qualitative (interview study) methodologies, we examine the pre-pandemic era to systematically map prevalent career trajectories in retail and wholesale. We identify personal traits associated with each career outcome, examine the reasons behind these trajectories, and explore strategies businesses can implement to retain their workforce. Our findings indicate that retail and wholesale sector employees typically experience either a prolonged career or a transient one, where initial jobs serve as a springboard to other industries or higher education. In retail, the likelihood of industry switching is lower among males, older individuals, those without children, and individuals with less education. In wholesale, a similar trend is observed, albeit without notable gender disparities. A key factor for employee turnover is the absence of skills development opportunities.

This paper assesses the role of human capital in labor turnover and turnover destinations of full-time retail employees. We use register data that encompasses the full population of Swedes above the age of 16 and follow the career paths of those that have, at one point in time between 2002 and 2018, worked full-time in retail. We use logit- and multinomial logit-estimations to assess the role of firm-specific (proxied by establishment tenure) and worker-specific human capital (proxied by industry tenure, formal education, retail education, and occupational complexity) in the propensity to quit a retail establishment and the retail sector. Results indicate that establishment tenure, industry tenure, retail education, and occupational complexity decrease the probability of quitting, while formal education has the opposite effect. Moreover, we find that industry tenure, retail education, and occupational complexity increase the probability of staying in the retail sector. 

There is evidence that individuals engage in herding behavior in diverse settings, ranging from fashion choices to financial markets. By examining the exogenous shock caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 and unique data measuring the footfalls in downtown Jonkoping, Sweden, we empirically assess how individuals respond to the restrictions imposed by the government and to the behavior of others, that is, herding. To this end, a regression discontinuity analysis with time as the running variable is applied. We find a negative effect of the restriction on footfalls, indicating that individuals follow the imposed governmental restrictions. However, we also find indications that individuals imitate the actions of others and engage in herd behavior even when the cost of doing so is very high; that is, it could result in severe illness or even death. With the use the unique setting of Sweden, where there have been no enforced lockdowns, we contribute with knowledge related to how effective voluntary restrictions are and the influence of others on one's decision making. Although the nature of the studied sample limits the external generalizability of the results, it may offer guidance for future interventions in clearly delineated settings.

I examine how neighbourhood-level food store access, proxied by distance to the nearest food store, changed in Sweden between 2000 and 2013, and how this change is correlated with changes in potential market size, proxied by population density. I find that distance has increased in rural and more affluent neighbourhoods. Furthermore, an increase in distance is negatively correlated with an increase in population density and is most pronounced in rural areas. The results are driven by the growing, rather than the declining, regions. Since the latter have often been a target for subsidies over the years, this could suggest that the aid may have had an impact.

This chapter uses a 2 by 2 adjustment model to study the changes in population and employment across 381 US metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2015. Population levels depend upon house prices (amenities) and location (climate), while employment levels depend upon wages and industrial specialization (manufacturing, professional services). Important distinctions are drawn between the 100 largest economies (Brookings group) and the 281 smaller ones. Supply-induced growth has dominated change in the larger areas, while demand-induced growth has prevailed in the smaller areas. Utility patents are shown to have had a positive impact on employment, where this impact has been greater in the nation’s large metropolitan economies. Estimates are made for four overlapping 10-year intervals and for data pooled across the 25 years.

This thesis is a compilation of four independent papers that examine the spatial process of retail location. The central question I ask is how changes in access to consumer demand affects retail in terms of size and survival. I empirically analyze these aspects on municipality, neighborhood and firm level using Swedish data from Statistics Sweden, HUI Research AB and Datscha Sweden.

The first paper (co-authored with Sven-Olov Daunfeldt, Oana Mihaescu and Niklas Rudholm) examines the effect of durable goods big-box retailer IKEA entry on retail net turnover and employment in the municipalities of entry and their neighbors. In the second paper I assess the effect of IKEA entry on firm level net turnover and employment of retail, restaurants, and accommodation firms at varying distances from the new IKEA. The third paper (co-authored with Johan Klaesson) addresses the relationship between entry of out-of-town located shopping malls and the exit of incumbent stores. We examine how the probability of exit relates to the order of the goods that are sold by the retailers and how local density of demand influences the outcome. In the third paper I examine changes in food store access by proximity on the neighborhood level and how this is related to population density.

The regional adjustment model is used to analyze changes in population and employment across the American metropolitan landscape between 1990 and 2015. Estimates are made for the effects of natural and human-created amenities on population change and the effects of wages, self-employment, patents, economic specialization, and age composition on employment change. Short-run impacts, estimated by linear regression, allow identification of a 2 by 2 “growth operator” matrix; long-run impacts are estimated by powering this matrix. In the early years of the 25-year study period, employment numbers largely drove population change, but, once the direction of causality reversed, population numbers largely drove employment change. Clearly, the balance between the overall effects of population and employment can shift over long periods of time.

We investigate the effects of IKEA entry in three Swedish municipalities, finding that revenues for incumbent retailers located 1 km from the new IKEA store experienced a 7% increase due to positive spillover. The effect was insignificant for retailers located in city centres or more than 1 km from IKEA. Moreover, the positive agglomeration effects only dominate the negative competition effects for stores that sell complementary products, while same-market retailers located between 2 and 5 km from the new IKEA store experienced revenue loss due to IKEA entry. In contrast to retail revenues, the effects on employment were statistically insignificant. 

The effects of a new IKEA store on retail revenues, employment and inflow of purchasing power in the entry municipalities as well as in neighbouring municipalities were investigated using data from 2000–11. A propensity score-matching method was used to find non-IKEA entry municipalities that were as similar as possible to the entry municipalities based on the situation before entry. The results indicate that IKEA entry increased entry municipality durable goods revenues by about 20% and employment by about 17%. Only small and, in most cases, statistically insignificant effects were found in neighbouring municipalities.