Modifications to p-Values of conformal predictorsShow others and affiliations
2015 (English)In: Statistical learning and data sciences, Springer, 2015, p. 251-259Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
The original definition of a p-value in a conformal predictor can sometimes lead to too conservative prediction regions when the number of training or calibration examples is small. The situation can be improved by using a modification to define an approximate p-value. Two modified p-values are presented that converges to the original p-value as the number of training or calibration examples goes to infinity. Numerical experiments empirically support the use of a p-value we call the interpolated p-value for conformal prediction. The interpolated p-value seems to be producing prediction sets that have an error rate which corresponds well to the prescribed significance level.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2015. p. 251-259
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743 ; 9047
Keywords [en]
Calibration, Forecasting, Conformal predictions, Conformal predictors, Error rate, Numerical experiments, P-values, Significance levels, Conformal mapping
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-38119DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-17091-6_20Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84949799508Local ID: 0;0;miljJAILISBN: 9783319170909 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-38119DiVA, id: diva2:1163881
Conference
3rd International Symposium on Statistical Learning and Data Sciences, SLDS 2015; Egham; United Kingdom; 20 April 2015 through 23 April 2015
2017-12-082017-12-082025-10-13Bibliographically approved