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Cyclical consumption and the aggregate stock market: Evidence from the Nordic countries
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Business Administration.
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Business Administration.
2021 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Researchers have dedicated considerable work to explaining components to excess stock market returns. Recently, Atanasov et al. (2020) managed to explain some of this variance in the US stock markets with a cyclical consumption variable. We have applied their model into the Nordic countries and compared it to a second model containing additional control variables. From the analysis, we find that cyclical consumption is able to explain excess stock market returns across five different h-quarter ahead excess returns. However, results are not consistent across countries. The extended model improves the explanatory capabilities of the model only up to two-year ahead excess returns. The cyclical consumption measure is also able to predict excess returns better than an historical average model. The findings in this paper are robust to out-of-sample predictability analysis and to a different measure of consumption and returns. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. , p. 57
Keywords [en]
Cyclical consumption, Aggregate stock market, Nordic countries, Out-of-Sample Predictability
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-52733ISRN: JU-IHH-FÖA-2-20211259OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-52733DiVA, id: diva2:1560688
Subject / course
JIBS, Business Administration
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2021-06-15 Created: 2021-06-04 Last updated: 2025-10-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
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