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Unlocking the crystal ball: Deciphering recessions through dynamic relationships among leading indicators in Sweden
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Economics.
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Economics.
2023 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Forecasting economic recessions has been a major topic of interest for economists, decisionmakers and the public alike. In this study we ventured to analyse how changes in economic output or GDP is related to changes in consumer sentiment and house prices in the Swedish economy. For the purpose we employed simple vector autoregression (VAR) methodology that has the benefit of modelling dynamic relationships across time. Our results indicated that consumer sentiment, measured by Consumer Confidence Index, and housing prices, measured by the Housing Index, are indeed related to GDP meaning that these variables can be used for forecasting GDP and potentially be indicative of imminent recessions. Overall, this study contributes to the body of knowledge on economic forecasting and VAR methodologies. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. , p. 53
Keywords [en]
VAR, analysis, economics, forecasting, recessions
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-61157ISRN: JU-IHH-NAA-1-20230306OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-61157DiVA, id: diva2:1768718
Subject / course
JIBS, Economics
Presentation
2023-06-01, B3008, JIBS building, Jönköping University, Gjuterigatan 5, Box 1026, 551 11, Jönköping, 09:00 (English)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2023-06-26 Created: 2023-06-15 Last updated: 2025-10-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
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  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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