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Exploring Key Factors in Goal Success: Evaluating Power Play Shots and Pre-shot Events in Ice Hockey Using Random Forest
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing.
2023 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Discovering the crucial factors that contribute to goal success in sports analytics, this thesis aimsto utilize Random Forest classification to predict the outcome of shots and pre-shot events in powerplay situations. Through three experiments, the study evaluated the use of shots, shots with pre-shotevents, and shots with pre-shot events over sections. The first experiment used only shots, while thesecond experiment focused on shots with pre-shot events, where both compared it with shots over anexpected goal value of 0.08 or higher. The third experiment examined shots with pre-shot events acrossdifferent sections. Our findings demonstrated that the models in our experiments achieved accuracyscores ranging from 78% to 96% and F1 scores between 0% and 24%. Notably, the models in experiment3 demonstrated lower recall scores. The feature importance analysis revealed that pre-shotevents played a significant role in the predictive models of the second and third experiments, indicatingtheir substantial impact on the outcomes. A noteworthy conclusion arising from the discussion isthe recommendation for future research to conduct a more comprehensive exploration into the impactof pre-shot events, given their demonstrated significance in predicting goals. Such an investigation isdeemed necessary and justified.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. , p. p. 48
Keywords [en]
Random Forest, Ice Hockey, Power play, Shots, Pre-shot events
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-61421ISRN: JU-JTH-DTT-2-20230002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-61421DiVA, id: diva2:1771985
Available from: 2023-06-22 Created: 2023-06-21 Last updated: 2025-10-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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