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Uncertainty quantification for LiDAR-based maps of ditches and natural streams
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2161-7371
Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd 17, Umeå, 901 83, Sweden.
Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd 17, Umeå, 901 83, Sweden.
Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd 17, Umeå, 901 83, Sweden.
2025 (English)In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 191, article id 106488Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article compares novel and existing uncertainty quantification approaches for semantic segmentation used in remote sensing applications. We compare the probability estimates produced by a neural network with Monte Carlo dropout-based approaches, including predictive entropy and mutual information, and conformal prediction-based approaches, including feature conformal prediction (FCP) and a novel approach based on conformal regression. The chosen task focuses on identifying ditches and natural streams based on LiDAR derived digital elevation models. We found that FCP's uncertainty estimates aligned best with the neural network's prediction performance, leading to the lowest Area Under the Sparsification Error curve of 0.09. For finding misclassified instances, the network probability was most suitable, requiring a correction of only 3% of the test instances to achieve a Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of 0.95. Conformal regression produced the best confident maps, which, at 90% confidence, covered 60% of the area and achieved an MCC of 0.82.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 191, article id 106488
Keywords [en]
Conformal prediction, LiDAR, Monte Carlo dropout, Semantic segmentation, Small-scale hydrology, Uncertainty quantification, Conformal predictions, Correlation coefficient, Natural streams, Remote sensing applications, Small scale, Uncertainty quantifications
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-67780DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106488ISI: 001490806800002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105004550292Local ID: HOA;;1017430OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-67780DiVA, id: diva2:1959046
Funder
Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, 2018.0259Marcus and Amalia Wallenberg FoundationSwedish Research Council Formas, 2021-00115Available from: 2025-05-19 Created: 2025-05-19 Last updated: 2025-10-13Bibliographically approved

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Westphal, Florian

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