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Classification with reject option: Distribution-free error guarantees via conformal prediction
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing. Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Sweden.
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing, Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0274-9026
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing, Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0412-6199
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing.ORCID iD: 0009-0009-0404-2586
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2025 (English)In: Machine Learning with Applications, E-ISSN 2666-8270, Vol. 20, article id 100664Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Machine learning (ML) models always make a prediction, even when they are likely to be wrong. This causes problems in practical applications, as we do not know if we should trust a prediction. ML with reject option addresses this issue by abstaining from making a prediction if it is likely to be incorrect. In this work, we formalise the approach to ML with reject option in binary classification, deriving theoretical guarantees on the resulting error rate. This is achieved through conformal prediction (CP), which produce prediction sets with distribution-free validity guarantees. In binary classification, CP can output prediction sets containing exactly one, two or no labels. By accepting only the singleton predictions, we turn CP into a binary classifier with reject option . Here, CP is formally put in the framework of predicting with reject option. We state and prove the resulting error rate, and give finite sample estimates. Numerical examples provide illustrations of derived error rate through several different conformal prediction settings, ranging from full conformal prediction to offline batch inductive conformal prediction. The former has a direct link to sharp validity guarantees, whereas the latter is more fuzzy in terms of validity guarantees but can be used in practice. Error-reject curves illustrate the trade-off between error rate and reject rate, and can serve to aid a user to set an acceptable error rate or reject rate in practice.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 20, article id 100664
Keywords [en]
Reject option, Conformal prediction, Binary classification, Abstain prediction, Refrain prediction, Error-reject curve
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-68026DOI: 10.1016/j.mlwa.2025.100664ISI: 001492648200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105027852801Local ID: GOA;intsam;1020344OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-68026DiVA, id: diva2:1962790
Available from: 2025-06-02 Created: 2025-06-02 Last updated: 2026-02-05Bibliographically approved

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Löfström, TuweJohansson, UlfSönströd, CeciliaCarlsson, Lars

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Löfström, TuweJohansson, UlfSönströd, CeciliaCarlsson, Lars
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