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Counterfactual Explanations for Conformal Prediction Sets
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4224-3740
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing.ORCID iD: 0009-0009-0404-2586
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing, Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0412-6199
2025 (English)In: Proceedings of Machine Learning Research: 14th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications / [ed] Nguyen K.A., Luo Z., Papadopoulos H., Lofstrom T., Carlsson L., Bostrom H., ML Research Press , 2025, Vol. 266, p. 405-424Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Conformal classification outputs prediction sets with formal guarantees, making it suitable for uncertainty-aware decision support. However, explaining such prediction sets remains an open challenge, as most existing explanation methods, including counterfactual ones, are tailored to point predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel form of counterfactual explanations for conformal classifiers. These counterfactuals identify minimal changes that modify the conformal prediction set at a fixed significance level, thereby explaining how and why certain classes are included or excluded. To guide the generation of informative counterfactuals, we consider proximity, sparsity, and plausibility. While proximity and sparsity are commonly used in the literature, we introduce credibility as a new measure of how well a counterfactual conforms to the underlying data distribution, and hence its plausibility. We empirically evaluate our method across multiple tabular datasets and optimization criteria. The findings demonstrate the potential of using counterfactual explanations for conformal classification as informative and trustworthy explanations for conformal prediction sets.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ML Research Press , 2025. Vol. 266, p. 405-424
Series
Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, ISSN 2640-3498
Keywords [en]
Conformal prediction, Counterfactual explanations, Explainable AI (XAI), Artificial intelligence, Classification (of information), Conformal predictions, Counterfactual explanation, Counterfactuals, Data distribution, Decision supports, Optimization criteria, Significance levels, Uncertainty, Forecasting
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-69695ISI: 001595063100021Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105013958881OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-69695DiVA, id: diva2:1995385
Conference
14th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, COPA 2025,10 September 2025 - 12 September 2025, London
Funder
Knowledge FoundationAvailable from: 2025-09-05 Created: 2025-09-05 Last updated: 2026-01-19Bibliographically approved

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Maalej, AichaSönströd, CeciliaJohansson, Ulf

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